Link 27 Jan Triad boss jailed for people smuggling»

Drugs & Thai women (Fiji)

Link 6 Jan 29 notes America's Real Criminal Element: Lead»

So Nevin dove in further, digging up detailed data on lead emissions and crime rates to see if the similarity of the curves was as good as it seemed. It turned out to be even better: In a 2000 paper (PDF) he concluded that if you add a lag time of 23 years, lead emissions from automobiles explain 90 percent of the variation in violent crime in America. Toddlers who ingested high levels of lead in the ’40s and ’50s really were more likely to become violent criminals in the ’60s, ’70s, and ’80s.

And with that we have our molecule: tetraethyl lead, the gasoline additive invented by General Motors in the 1920s to prevent knocking and pinging in high-performance engines. As auto sales boomed after World War II, and drivers in powerful new cars increasingly asked service station attendants to “fill ‘er up with ethyl,” they were unwittingly creating a crime wave two decades later.

It was an exciting conjecture, and it prompted an immediate wave of…nothing. Nevin’s paper was almost completely ignored, and in one sense it’s easy to see why—Nevin is an economist, not a criminologist, and his paper was published in Environmental Research, not a journal with a big readership in the criminology community. What’s more, a single correlation between two curves isn’t all that impressive, econometrically speaking. Sales of vinyl LPs rose in the postwar period too, and then declined in the ’80s and ’90s. Lots of things follow a pattern like that. So no matter how good the fit, if you only have a single correlation it might just be a coincidence. You need to do something more to establish causality.

As it turns out, however, a few hundred miles north someone was doing just that. In the late ’90s, Jessica Wolpaw Reyes was a graduate student at Harvard casting around for a dissertation topic that eventually became a study she published in 2007 as a public health policy professor at Amherst. “I learned about lead because I was pregnant and living in old housing in Harvard Square,” she told me, and after attending a talk where future Freakonomics star Levitt outlined his abortion/crime theory, she started thinking about lead and crime. Although the association seemed plausible, she wanted to find out whether increased lead exposure caused increases in crime. But how?

The answer, it turned out, involved “several months of cold calling” to find lead emissions data at the state level. During the ’70s and ’80s, the introduction of the catalytic converter, combined with increasingly stringent Environmental Protection Agency rules, steadily reduced the amount of leaded gasoline used in America, but Reyes discovered that this reduction wasn’t uniform. In fact, use of leaded gasoline varied widely among states, and this gave Reyes the opening she needed. If childhood lead exposure really did produce criminal behavior in adults, you’d expect that in states where consumption of leaded gasoline declined slowly, crime would decline slowly too. Conversely, in states where it declined quickly, crime would decline quickly. And that’s exactly what she found.

via AZspot.
Link 6 Dec Big 4 Auditors Under Fire»
Text 30 Sep

Gia (@GiaIbarra) @Polaris_Project: The link to the new @whitehouse #humantrafficking site is: http://t.co/vYcLVjWV

Text 31 Aug

EndSlaveryNow: “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can make a difference … ” http://t.co/eS0ykoE3 #humantrafficking

Video 28 Aug 15 notes
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Photo 15 Aug 172,599 notes
Photo 6 Aug 131 notes azspot:

Matt Wuerker
via AZspot.
Text 20 May

RT @ADL_Blog Kidnapping for Human Trafficking and for Ransom - Provided $30-50 million Euro’s to Jihadists in 2010… http://t.co/qxEN7yWP — American Delight (@MoneyJihad)

Text 1 Apr

Government in $112b barney over accounting http://t.co/WwBwH3yw — paulbrislen (@paulbrislen)


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